The Economist: Electric cars Difference Engine: Tailpipe tru

[cwerdna]

Hope this isn't a repost.

Electric cars
Difference Engine: Tailpipe truths
http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2012/04/electric-cars?fsrc=nlw|newe|4-20-2012|1447248|36350411|" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I've only skimmed the article but he's clearly not pro-EV. The author has a lot of his facts wrong and is mixing various random mileage tests and figures. Sigh...

I think part of it is a side effect of the author not understanding CAFE mileage vs. Monroney sticker numbers and then falling into the trap of high sounding highway mileage numbers of various non-hybrids.

Here, your correspondent has the first of his quibbles. The petrol car the UCS team uses for comparison is a notional compact that gets 27mpg. Thus, the team’s claim that even electric vehicles powered by coal (with an emissions equivalent of 30mpg) are cleaner than comparable petrol cars.

The petrol benchmark was chosen because in 2010—the most recent year for which data were available when the study was launched—the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) fuel-economy figures for all compact cars sold that year averaged 27mpg. Given the huge improvements in fuel efficiency over the past few years, the average today is more like 35mpg. “In 2010, only one vehicle—the Smart ForTwo—achieved 40mpg,” notes Edmunds.com. “Today, the 40mpg club is up to nine vehicles and growing.” That is one of the reasons why pricey plug-ins such as the Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt have flopped.

With America’s new emissions standards requiring a fleet average of 34.1mpg by 2016, carmakers there have started peppering their line-ups with frugal imports from their overseas divisions. Some of the foreign fuel-sippers get even more to the gallon than popular hybrids like the Toyota Prius which, according to tests by Consumers Union, delivers a real-world 44mpg. With its advanced three-cylinder engine, Ford’s new Fiesta, which went on sale in Europe last year, gets 47mpg (see “The balance of power”, March 23rd 2012). The Volkswagen three-cylinder up! is capable of 52mpg. Both could soon be heading for American shores.

The 27 mpg the UCS chose appears to based on combined EPA mileage.

For him to make claims that "the average today is more like 35mpg" is bogus as per http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/PowerSearch.do?action=PowerSearch&year1=2012&year2=2013&minmsrpsel=0&maxmsrpsel=0&cbftreggasoline=Regular+Gasoline&cbftmidgasoline=Midgrade+Gasoline&cbftprmgasoline=Premium+Gasoline&cbftdiesel=Diesel&city=0&combined=35&highway=0&mpgType=0&minMPGSel=&maxMPGSel=&rowLimit=50&YearSel=2012-2013&MakeSel=&MarClassSel=&FuelTypeSel=Regular+Gasoline%2C+Midgrade+Gasoline%2C+Premium+Gasoline%2C+Diesel&VehTypeSel=&TranySel=&DriveTypeSel=&CylindersSel=&MpgSel=0350&sortBy=City&Units=&url=SearchServlet&opt=new&minmsrp=0&maxmsrp=0&minmpg=0&maxmpg=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, there are virtually no non-hybrids that achieve even 35+ mpg combined for the '12-'13 model years. Even the Smart ForTwo he mentions is rated at only 35-36 mpg combined and doesn't achieve 40 mpg on the EPA highway test.

His claims about the Focus are wrong too:

A state-of-the-art electric vehicle like Ford’s forthcoming Focus EV, with a claimed range of 100 miles (say, 70 miles in real-world conditions) and an equivalent fuel economy up there with the Nissan Leaf’s 106mpg, has a base price of $39,200. The petrol-powered version of the same vehicle, which averages around 40mpg, costs just $16,500.

Per http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/sbs.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, the '12 Focus is EPA rated at 31 mpg combined and the SFE version is rated at 33 mpg combined.

It's funny how he claims the regular Focus "averages around 40mpg" (NOT) and mentions the Consumer Reports 44 mpg result for the Prius (which is a bit low). Well, the two Focuses that CR tested received *28* mpg ovverall per https://www.consumerreports.org/cro/cars/new-cars/buying-advice/best-worst-cars-review/best-worst-fuel-economy/best-and-worst-fuel-economy.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

Feel free to chime in on the comments there and set this guy straight (hopefully).

 

[cdherman]

I am an avid Economist reader. No wonder they relegate that guy to Blog posts and not the main rag, as he's not a good writer, or mathmetician to say the least.

First off, lumping hybrid vehicles and plug ins into the same catagory is completely wrong. Hybrid technology simply is a means to get better mileage from an ICE. Beats me why people keep putting them in the same catagory with EVs. Because they both have a battery I suppose..... But from the economics standpoint, the discussion should keep them separate.

Second thing is that he pulls from varied sources -- after a while you no idea who's opinion he's quoting this time. The edmunds reference is partucularly poor. So what does it really mean that 2/3 of Prius owners switch to conventional vehicles if/when the trade? We really cannot tell much from that at all. What's the OVERALL rate of switch? Maybe most Prius owners are happy as clams, but those who bought to be in the "me-too" crowd, suddenly got bored and reverted to old ways??? In short -- that quote from Edmunds is worthless. Its a classic "how to lie with statistics" -- quote the one "part" of the picture, while leaving out other details that would shed light on the real causes....

But finally, lets conceed here. The Economist prides itself in making economically and financially balanced arguements -- and here the case for EVs still is shakey if you ONLY count dollars. So what? I think we know, right? Most of us hope to recoup our higher investment over time, and we anticipate that energy prices will rise, thus speeding our recovery of investment.

But if we behaving purely rational, attempting to view things based on todays dollars only, we'd probably drive a Corolla or Focus.... Maybe a Prius, though, even that additional cost takes a long time to work down at $4 gas....

But luckily, we are NOT thinking only about today. We recognise the payback will come, or we think it will come at least. Moreover, and I think this is important -- I think many of us recognise a danger in "staying on the sidelines" too long. I feel a compulsion, almost a sense of duty to do this, so that the industry and technology are stimulated and continue to move forward. You cannot put a $ sign on doing what you feel is "the right thing".

 

[garygid]

I supported Toyota's excellent dedication to improving real-world gas mileage by buying a 2010 Prius, voting for a better future with my dollars.

Similarily, I voted with my dollars again, for a livable planet, by buying a 2011 LEAF and supporting Nissan, the first major company to really dedicate itself to selling a safe, practical, well-made 100% EV to the general public worldwide.

Mitsubishi is essentially second into the practical EV clean-car market, and I encourage their efforts, even though I already have too many cars and too few dollars to "vote" again.

Now, I only have my limited Time-On-This-Planet remaining to use up, and I am attempting take good care of my "creatures", and their future, and make significant efforts to enable, and encourage, others to have simular concerns and priorities.

Today, a Green Earth Day, I hope to go out and show some others that the Future has a Chance, ... if we all insist that raping the planet MUST be replaced with being GOOD shepherds of this fantastic Blue Planet. Yes, our "Small Ball" needs help to survive!

 

[lpickup]

The petrol benchmark was chosen because in 2010—the most recent year for which data were available when the study was launched—the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) fuel-economy figures for all compact cars sold that year averaged 27mpg. Given the huge improvements in fuel efficiency over the past few years, the average today is more like 35mpg. “In 2010, only one vehicle—the Smart ForTwo—achieved 40mpg,” notes Edmunds.com. “Today, the 40mpg club is up to nine vehicles and growing.” That is one of the reasons why pricey plug-ins such as the Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt have flopped.

I like the way he equates the existence of 40mpg cars to actually significantly affecting the average mpg of cars sold. My understanding is that most people don't buy the 40mpg versions of those cars (which would mean buying an expensive trim level with manual transmission). In fact in another thread I think someone else mentioned what sounded like an actual stat (versus this guy's "more like" statement) that said the average MPG of new cars bought is more like 24.something MPG.

I also like the brilliant deduction this guy makes to conclude that the fact that 40mpg ICEVs exist is the reason that the LEAF and Volt have flopped. Yeah, over 2200 vehicles in one moth (for the Volt) is a flop!

 

[TRONZ]

I supported Toyota's excellent dedication to improving real-world gas mileage by buying a 2010 Prius, voting for a better future with my dollars.

Similarily, I voted with my dollars again, for a livable planet, by buying a 2011 LEAF and supporting Nissan, the first major company to really dedicate itself to selling a safe, practical, well-made 100% EV to the general public worldwide.

Mitsubishi is essentially second into the practical EV clean-car market, and I encourage their efforts, even though I already have too many cars and too few dollars to "vote" again.

Now, I only have my limited Time-On-This-Planet remaining to use up, and I am attempting take good care of my "creatures", and their future, and make significant efforts to enable, and encourage, others to have simular concerns and priorities.

Today, a Green Earth Day, I hope to go out and show some others that the Future has a Chance, ... if we all insist that raping the planet MUST be replaced with being GOOD shepherds of this fantastic Blue Planet. Yes, our "Small Ball" needs help to survive!

+1

 

[cwerdna]

The petrol benchmark was chosen because in 2010—the most recent year for which data were available when the study was launched—the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) fuel-economy figures for all compact cars sold that year averaged 27mpg. Given the huge improvements in fuel efficiency over the past few years, the average today is more like 35mpg. “In 2010, only one vehicle—the Smart ForTwo—achieved 40mpg,” notes Edmunds.com. “Today, the 40mpg club is up to nine vehicles and growing.” That is one of the reasons why pricey plug-ins such as the Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt have flopped.

I like the way he equates the existence of 40mpg cars to actually significantly affecting the average mpg of cars sold. My understanding is that most people don't buy the 40mpg versions of those cars (which would mean buying an expensive trim level with manual transmission). In fact in another thread I think someone else mentioned what sounded like an actual stat (versus this guy's "more like" statement) that said the average MPG of new cars bought is more like 24.something MPG.

I also like the brilliant deduction this guy makes to conclude that the fact that 40mpg ICEVs exist is the reason that the LEAF and Volt have flopped. Yeah, over 2200 vehicles in one moth (for the Volt) is a flop!

The problem is that the so-called "40mpg" cars (highway EPA estimates) are actually 30 to low 30s mpg cars when it comes to combined mileage. Not everyone lives and works on a highway and many who take highways end up in stop and go traffic w/tons of idling more closely resembles the EPA city cycle.

http://blog.truecar.com/2012/04/11/average-fuel-economy-for-new-cars-sold-in-march-2012-rises-to-23-4-mpg-according-to-truecar-com%E2%80%99s-truempg/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; says "Average Fuel Economy for New Cars Sold In March 2012 Rises To 23.4 MPG According to TrueCar.com’s TrueMPG".

 

[GRA]

The petrol benchmark was chosen because in 2010—the most recent year for which data were available when the study was launched—the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) fuel-economy figures for all compact cars sold that year averaged 27mpg. Given the huge improvements in fuel efficiency over the past few years, the average today is more like 35mpg. “In 2010, only one vehicle—the Smart ForTwo—achieved 40mpg,” notes Edmunds.com. “Today, the 40mpg club is up to nine vehicles and growing.” That is one of the reasons why pricey plug-ins such as the Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt have flopped.

I like the way he equates the existence of 40mpg cars to actually significantly affecting the average mpg of cars sold. My understanding is that most people don't buy the 40mpg versions of those cars (which would mean buying an expensive trim level with manual transmission). In fact in another thread I think someone else mentioned what sounded like an actual stat (versus this guy's "more like" statement) that said the average MPG of new cars bought is more like 24.something MPG.

24.1mpg for all LDVs, versus 20.8 mpg four years ago. [Edit] This site:

http://green.autoblog.com/2012/04/11/u-s-new-vehicle-fuel-economy-hits-another-record-in-march/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

has the data presented on a graph, but is confusing as the text uses 'cars' and 'vehicles' interchangeably. I believe 'vehicles' is the correct term in this case.

I also like the brilliant deduction this guy makes to conclude that the fact that 40mpg ICEVs exist is the reason that the LEAF and Volt have flopped. Yeah, over 2200 vehicles in one moth (for the Volt) is a flop!

Depends on your benchmark. For example, Cruze sales are averaging about 10 times that:

http://www.vindy.com/news/2012/mar/02/high-gas-prices-lift-sales-of-gm-cruze/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And at least early on, the Cruze was the car most frequently cross-shopped with the Volt:

http://media.competeinc.com/med/uploads/files/November%20-%20Auto.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

and

http://www.greencc.com/groundbreaking-ideas.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[lpickup]

I also like the brilliant deduction this guy makes to conclude that the fact that 40mpg ICEVs exist is the reason that the LEAF and Volt have flopped. Yeah, over 2200 vehicles in one moth (for the Volt) is a flop!

Depends on your benchmark. For example, Cruze sales are averaging about 10 times that:

http://www.vindy.com/news/2012/mar/02/high-gas-prices-lift-sales-of-gm-cruze/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So what? You found a car that has 10X sales of the Volt.
Does that mean the Volt is defined as a "flop"? Because a car exists that has 10X sales?
Honda CR-Z hybrid had sales of 536 in March. Does that make it a double flop?

I guess we can define "flop" however we wish, but in my definition, a flop is something that is clearly going nowhere and is headed towards oblivion. I would be hard-pressed to say that about the Volt right now.

 

[lkkms2]

24.1mpg for all LDVs, versus 20.8 mpg four years ago.

On the Toyota cars on display at Earth Day at Balboa Park, San Diego, the energy efficiency standard stickers with MPG shows 22 MPG as the average vehicle MPG to do the five year fuel cost comparison.

 

[Nubo]

...The Economist prides itself in making economically and financially balanced arguements -- and here the case for EVs still is shakey if you ONLY count dollars. So what? I think we know, right? Most of us hope to recoup our higher investment over time, and we anticipate that energy prices will rise, thus speeding our recovery of investment.

But if we behaving purely rational, attempting to view things based on todays dollars only, we'd probably drive a Corolla or Focus.... Maybe a Prius, though, even that additional cost takes a long time to work down at $4 gas....

If I was thinking in purely dollar terms, I'd buy a 15-year old civic, no maintenance, put oil and gas in it until it died. But, I have other goals.

Why is it that people have this notion that an electric car can only be worthwhile if it costs less than any other car? Bah!

It has day-to-day driving advantages than I enjoy. But most of all, I'm no longer feeding the monster that has been choking this country since I started driving 35 years ago.

 

[dgpcolorado]

If I was thinking in purely dollar terms, I'd buy a 15-year old civic, no maintenance, put oil and gas in it until it died. But, I have other goals.

Why is it that people have this notion that an electric car can only be worthwhile if it costs less than any other car? Bah!

It has day-to-day driving advantages than I enjoy. But most of all, I'm no longer feeding the monster that has been choking this country since I started driving 35 years ago.

This. I'm also getting tired of the new car TCO comparisons. If I wanted lowest possible cost I'd just buy a beater, as you suggest. But I'm trying to kick the oil habit.

 

[GRA]

I also like the brilliant deduction this guy makes to conclude that the fact that 40mpg ICEVs exist is the reason that the LEAF and Volt have flopped. Yeah, over 2200 vehicles in one moth (for the Volt) is a flop!

Depends on your benchmark. For example, Cruze sales are averaging about 10 times that:

http://www.vindy.com/news/2012/mar/02/high-gas-prices-lift-sales-of-gm-cruze/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So what? You found a car that has 10X sales of the Volt.

Well, not just 'a' car, but one based on the same platform, sold by the same dealers and which is (was?) the one most frequently cross-shopped with the Volt. But see below.

Does that mean the Volt is defined as a "flop"? Because a car exists that has 10X sales?
Honda CR-Z hybrid had sales of 536 in March. Does that make it a double flop?

I guess we can define "flop" however we wish, but in my definition, a flop is something that is clearly going nowhere and is headed towards oblivion. I would be hard-pressed to say that about the Volt right now.

I agree it's too early reach any conclusions, as we'll have to wait for a couple of months to see whether the current sales increase is just a spike due to people waiting for the HOV-Volts (apparently 25% of Volts have been sold in California, and I think that pre-dates March), combined with the effects of the gas price spike in Jan. - Feb. If PiP sales rapidly overtake the Volt and the latter's sales drop back to where they were a few months ago, _then_ I think it will be safe to say the Volt's a flop. That will largely depend on the price of gas -- if it goes up again all HEVs/EVs will benefit, but after the spike earlier this year it's fallen about $0.25/gal. locally in the last month.

In the case of the CR-Z, that car has been underwhelming reviewers since it was released, so I think that combined with its sales very likely does qualify it as a flop, much as the 2nd gen. Insight is (at least when compared to the Prius, which it was designed to undercut on price and thus suck substantial sales from). In any case, I think we can both agree that if the Volt had sold 22k in March and the Cruze only 2.2k, we wouldn't be having this discussion

 

[GRA]

24.1mpg for all LDVs, versus 20.8 mpg four years ago.

On the Toyota cars on display at Earth Day at Balboa Park, San Diego, the energy efficiency standard stickers with MPG shows 22 MPG as the average vehicle MPG to do the five year fuel cost comparison.

Thanks, although I expect those stickers are changed on no more than a yearly basis, and thus wouldn't be able to show month by month sales, which have clearly been affected by fuel price. The chart I referenced in the earlier post shows average fuel economy for all MY 2011 vehicles sold as 22.5 mpg, so that agrees with the sticker info. The graph shows the trend has been upward this year, i.e. people are voting with their wallets.

 

[cwerdna]

24.1mpg for all LDVs, versus 20.8 mpg four years ago.

On the Toyota cars on display at Earth Day at Balboa Park, San Diego, the energy efficiency standard stickers with MPG shows 22 MPG as the average vehicle MPG to do the five year fuel cost comparison.

Thanks, although I expect those stickers are changed on no more than a yearly basis, and thus wouldn't be able to show month by month sales, which have clearly been affected by fuel price. The chart I referenced in the earlier post shows average fuel economy for all MY 2011 vehicles sold as 22.5 mpg, so that agrees with the sticker info. The graph shows the trend has been upward this year, i.e. people are voting with their wallets.

The 22.5 mpg is pretty close to http://www.epa.gov/otaq/cert/mpg/fetrends/2012/420s12001a.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; (executive summary from http://www.epa.gov/otaq/fetrends.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false.

 

[stacy0202]

Most people think that in order to get 40 miles per gallon or better, one has to buy a hybrid. However, with the fuel efficiency arms race among car makers, there are bevy cars that get 40 mpg without hybrid technology. Read here: Plenty of 40 mpg capable cars use no hybrid technology

 

[cwerdna]

Most people think that in order to get 40 miles per gallon or better, one has to buy a hybrid. However, with the fuel efficiency arms race among car makers, there are bevy cars that get 40 mpg without hybrid technology. Read here: Plenty of 40 mpg capable cars use no hybrid technology

:roll:
Sigh... you're missing the point. Not a SINGLE one of those gets 40 mpg or more COMBINED on the EPA test.

Go to http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/PowerSearch.do?action=PowerSearch&year1=2012&year2=2013&minmsrpsel=0&maxmsrpsel=0&cbftreggasoline=Regular+Gasoline&cbftmidgasoline=Midgrade+Gasoline&cbftprmgasoline=Premium+Gasoline&cbfte85=E85&city=0&combined=40&highway=0&mpgType=0&minMPGSel=&maxMPGSel=&rowLimit=50&YearSel=2012-2013&MakeSel=&MarClassSel=&FuelTypeSel=Regular+Gasoline%2C+Midgrade+Gasoline%2C+Premium+Gasoline%2C+E85&VehTypeSel=&TranySel=&DriveTypeSel=&CylindersSel=&MpgSel=0400&sortBy=City&Units=&url=SearchServlet&opt=new&minmsrp=0&maxmsrp=0&minmpg=0&maxmpg=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; or do a search for '12 to '13 gasoline and diesel powered vehicles, with combined mileage of >=40 mpg. Every single result that comes up is a hybrid.

As I stated early on:

The problem is that the so-called "40mpg" cars (highway EPA estimates) are actually 30 to low 30s mpg cars when it comes to combined mileage. Not everyone lives and works on a highway and many who take highways end up in stop and go traffic w/tons of idling more closely resembles the EPA city cycle.

Have you bothered look at the combined or city mileage of your so-called "40 mpg" (highway) cars?

Also, take a look at tests done by CR. At http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/2012/02/the-most-fuel-efficient-cars/index.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, how many non-hybrids/non-EVs/non-PHEVs have 40+ mpg overall mileage? 0