Electric vehicles will make up as many as 8 out of 10 new cars sold in 2050, but it will still be a long road before they dislodge gasoline as the predominant fuel in transportation, IHS Markit Vice Chairman Daniel Yergin writes in his new book, The New Map: Energy, Climate and the Clash of Nations.
IHS Markit projects that electric vehicles (including battery, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell electric) will comprise 60-80% of all new car sales in 2050. That increased market share (from 2.2% of new car sales in 2020, according to IHS Markit data) will be driven by greater scale in manufacturing, as well as the continued improvement of batteries.
IHS Markit now projects that the average lithium-ion cell cost will fall below $100 per kilowatt hour by 2023.
Nevertheless, gasoline-powered vehicles will still comprise two-thirds of the 1.9 billion cars on the road in 2050 owing to the time it takes for the fleet to turn over. The average car in the United States remains on the road for almost 12 years. . . .
